There are times when we must all look to history, or be doomed to repeat it. As injuries have decimated the Yankees original 2014 starting staff, and baseball settles its landscape on the trade market, Cliff Lee appears to be atop many fans wish list for a revamped Yankees rotation as a battle tested ace. Yet, Cliff Lee demonstrates a desturbing historical parallel to the Yankees 2004 persuit of Randy Johnson.
Lee is on a struggling Phillies team (43-55, 5th in the NL East), one that will inevitably be forced to deal many of its stars by the July 31st trade deadline in order to rebuild. Lee is owed an overwhelming amount of money over the next year and a half. Lee's current deal entitles him to $7.5M for the remainder of 2014, $25M for 2015, and a $27.5M option in 2016, with a $12.5M buyout for declining (per Baseball Prospectus' Cot's Contracts). Lee has made a career out of firing bee-bee’s at the Yankees during critical playoff moments, and is also the top flight pitcher that has always been just out of reach for the Yankees in the past. In essence, Cliff Lee is Randy Johnson from 10 years ago.
Some may recall the fixation that began when a Daily News’ article in July 2004 quoted Johnson as saying “I’d play for the Yanks.” In 2004, the pitching needs were very similar to those of the 2014 Yankees. Both are the product of injury and under performance. Yankees fans were clamoring to fit Johnson for pinstripes as an answer to their championship prayers. In fairness, Johnson in 2004 was having a much more memorable season than Lee’s 2014. In fact, Johnson was downright dominant (16-14 W-L/245.2 IP/2.60 ERA/0.90 WHIP/44 BB/290 K). He was the lone figure that made Arizona Diamondbacks (55-111) baseball palatable, albeit once every five days. Ultimately the Yankees were not able to acquire Johnson until the off-season, two months too late for the 04’ campaign. Once the Yankees managed to trade for him, his two year tenure was highly tumultuous. Beginning with a bevy of mechanical problems that affected his velocity and slider command. Johnson also endured an endless string of back ailments that clearly hindered his performance. His time in the Bronx ultimately lead him to be traded back to Arizona during the 2006 off season, to both the relief of Johnson and the Yankees alike.
I bring this vivid example to light because it feels like the situation the Yankees face with Cliff Lee. Like Johnson, Lee was never known for his fondness for playing in the Bronx, or for their fans (A notable incident with Lee’s wife in the stands at Yankee Stadium during the 2010 AL Championship Series did not help), and both have spurned significant Yankee interest during free agency. More pointedly, both come with high prices tags in the form of major contractual obligations, and a potential haul of the few valued prospects in the Yankee system. Lee, like Johnson, is not in the prime of his career, and further stands a realistic probability of re-injury. Lee has been on the DL since May 10th with a pitching elbow strain. Lee is is 35 years old, Johnson was 40.
It is fair to say Cliff Lee is by definition a high risk investment, potentially even greater than Johnson. Not only will the Yankees in all likelihood be forced to grant Philadephia major concessions, they also run the risk of acquiring a player who’s body, mind, and heart appear far from lockstep with the challenge the Yankees face. Granted, Lee has a full no-trade clause, one that Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. would have to convince Lee to waive (Editor's Note: Cliff Lee has a partial no-trade clause to 20 clubs, that includes the Yankees). Even if Amaro manages to do so, the Yankees face the prospect of acquiring a player with little initial desire to be in New York. There is no physical injury that can compare when an athlete, even a professional athlete, is not fully committed to their playing situation. Unfortunately, there is no sabermetric measurement, nor scouting report, that can tell Brian Cashman what he needs to know about Lee’s heart before possibly pulling the trigger on that deal.
As a Yankees fan, I cannot help but recall how dominant Lee has been in big spots, especially against the Yankees. Since 2007, Cliff Lee has been everything on the mound, and more. Though it is no stretch to label any deal for him with the old adage “buyer beware,” no matter the potential great reward it may bring to a Yankees club firmly in need.
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